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A holistic framework spanning climatology, hydrology, flood inundation hydraulics and statistical uncertainty assessment.

The uncertainty flow chart of the HydroClimate project.

• Research Focus 1: Multiple Methods for Quantifying Extreme Precipitation Fields

1. Extract atmospheric moisture, thickness & rainfall data from 17 ensemble runs (1 control and 16 perturbed) of the HadCM3 and HadRM3 models (1960–2100);
2. Produce spatial rainfall fields using 2 approaches (RCM direct + analogue based on observations) for a climate-control 1960-2000 and a climate-perturbed period 2001-2100;
3. Validate spatial precipitation fields for both analogue and RCM approaches.

• Research Focus 2: Efficient Cascading of Uncertainties through an Ensemble Flood Forecasting System

1. Construct an ensemble of distributed flood models;
2. Explore the origin & propagation of the dominant hydrological uncertainties at each stage and from specifying different landuse characterisations;
3. Explore the functional clustering in quantifying uncertainties for such a multi-discipline distributed modelling system;
4. Produce flood inundation hazard maps that quantify and reflect the propagated uncertainties from the cascaded climate-hydrological modeling framework.

The organogram of the HydroClimate project.

Core project team

Hannah Cloke (King's College London)
Jim Freer (University of Bristol)
Fredrik Wetterhall (King's College London)
Yi He (King's College London)


Project collaborators

Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
Matt Wilson (University of the West Indies)
Glenn McGregor (University of Auckland)
Sue Grimmond (King's College London)
Jason Lowe (UK Met Office)


Steering committee members


Other external bodies