[-]Project collaborators
Rhys McCarthy (UK Environment Agency)
Richard Cross (UK Environment Agency)
- Sue Grimmond (King's College, London)
Post-doctoral research associates:
[-]Sister project
Novel Early flood Warning and Risk Assessment System (NEWS)
- a new generation expert system software for flood warning and risk analysis
A partnership and Proof of Concept (PoC) grant awarded by Innovation China UK
Jan. 2009 - Aug. 2010
[-]Related publication
- He Y, F Wetterhall, HL Cloke, F Pappenberger, M Wilson, J Freer, and G McGregor. 2009. Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions, Meteorological Applications, Special Issue: Flood Forecasting and Warning, 16(1): 91 - 101.
PDF - Thielen J, Bartholmes J, Ramos M, de Roo A. 2009. The European flood alert system-part 1: concept and development. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13: 125–140. PDF
- Bartholmes J, Thielen J, Ramos M, Gentilini S. 2009. The European Flood Alert System EFAS-Part 2: statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 13, 141–153. PDF
- Pappenberger F, Bartholmes J, Thielen J, Cloke H, Buizza R, de Roo A. 2008. New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophysical Research Letters 35: L10404, DOI:10.1029/2008GL033837 PDF
[-]Error correction
The error correction was carried out by comparing the observed time series (1960-2006) to the output created by the RCM and interpolated onto the same 5 x 5 km grid. The correction is then done on a grid-by-grid basis in two steps:
- The drizzle is removed by applying a threshold based on observed precipitation to get the same number of rainy days in the modelled precipitation. Days with precipitation amounts larger than the threshold value are considered as wet days in the modelled RCM, and all other days as dry days.
- The modelled precipitation is transformed using a transformation method, in this a case a gamma distribution. A number of statistical distributions are available to describe the probability distribution of precipitation intensities, and in this study the gamma distribution was selected due to its well-known capability of representing typically asymmetrical and positively skewed distributed daily precipitation.
[-]Flood risk map
Future flood risk maps that display probabilistic flood inundation maps (adopted API technologies from NEWS)
