Uncertainty Assessments of Flood Inundation Impacts:
Using spatial climate change scenarios to drive an Ensemble of Distributed Models for Extreme Conditions
This project aims to improve estimates of flood inudation hazard by propagating uncertainties from Regional Climate Model precipitation projections into an ensemble of flood inundation predictions for large basin scales.
The project team will use a cascade of distributed climate, rainfall-runoff and flood inundation models to:
- Quantify the top-end uncertainties by assessing extreme precipitation fields produced using two contrasting approaches.
- Assess the impact of these top-end uncertainties on flood inundation predictions.
- Quantify all inter- and intra- model uncertainties of the cascade framework for various climate, landues and soil moisture scenarios.
- Assess the impacts of using different existing rainfall-runoff and flood inundation models with a relatively low number of simulations using novel techniques.
- Deliver a methodology for general use that is highly scaleable.
- Provide input to other NERC FREE projects.
Project domain - Upper Severn Catchment, Midlands region of England
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(a) Severn Catchment located in the Midlands region of England;
(b) Montford-Buildwas river section;
(c) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Upper Severn Catchment.
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| Montford Gauging Station | Buildwas Gauging Station | Welshbridge | Ironbridge |
